2026 Preakness Stakes — Betting Model

Race Settings

Pace Scenario

Track Condition

Front (Laurel -1 + Scenario -2) -3

Tactical (Laurel +2 + Scenario +1) +3

Stalker (Laurel +1 + Scenario +2) +3

Closer (Laurel -1 + Scenario +2) +1

FRESHNESS (DSLR) SCALE: ≤14d −2 (short rest) 15–20 0 21–27 +1 28–35 +2 (peak) 36–49 +1 50–64 0 >64 −2 (rust)

Laurel Park Surface Facts
Composition: 89% sand, 11% silt/clay — very sandy, drains fast, plays "fast" most days.
Sandy tracks compact more gradually through the card vs. clay-heavy tracks (like Keeneland) that can get hard and speed-favoring late.
Laurel tends to play relatively fair between speed and closers — but the short stretch overrides that for pure deep closers.

Laurel Layout vs. Pimlico
Stretch: 1,089 ft (Laurel) vs 1,152 ft (Pimlico) vs 1,234 ft (Churchill) — shortest of the Triple Crown venues.
Width: 95 ft (Laurel) vs 70 ft (Pimlico) — more room for traffic but less time to use it.
Oval: 1⅛-mile (wider turns). The shorter stretch means tactical speed horses have an edge over pure late runners.

Laurel Fixed Pace Modifiers — always applied; Pace Setup slider scales the intensity
▼ Front-runner −1 · Sandy surface drains reserves; pace-setters burn more per stride than on firm clay
▲ Tactical +2 · Short stretch (1,089 ft) + energy-absorbing surface = ideal for a controlled burst off the pace
▲ Stalker +1 · Arrives fresh, benefits from tired pace; still enough ground to accelerate
▼ Closer −1 · Shortest Triple Crown stretch limits runway; sustained kick muted by sandy give

Field — 14 Starters (posts drawn May 11) · Click ℹ for AI research notes

Trainer Adj: Russell +3, Asmussen +2, Brown +2, O'Neill +2, Casse +1, Fincher +1, Mott +1, Saffie +1, neutral 0, Baffert −2. ML: Decimal (2.5 = 5/2). Update Act. Odds once betting opens on race day.

	Horse / Trainer	Post	ML	Act. Odds	Last Spd	2-Back	DSLR	Pace Role	Last Race Class	Track Fam	Trainer Adj	∅ Trend
1	B. Russell
🏠 HOME TRACK HERO. Unbeaten in 3 starts — ALL at Laurel Park. Dominant 8¼-length Tesio win April 18 earns Preakness auto berth. Trainer Brittany Russell has prepared him specifically for this race on his home oval. Gate-to-wire front-runner — led by 10 at the half in the Tesio, let them close, then found another gear to win by 8¼. No other horse in this field knows Laurel like Taj Mahal. Key question: can he handle the distance stretch and tougher class?
2	W. Beckman
MAIDEN IN THE PREAKNESS. Winless in 6 starts but ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 — nearly became first maiden to win the Derby since 1933. Gaffalione up. Strong late kick from deep in the field. Concern: still a maiden, short turnaround (14 days), trainer Whit Beckman has limited big-race experience. Best case: another big Derby-style closing run at a huge price.
3	D. Von Hemel
Wire-to-wire winner of the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn. Front-runner who sets easy pace and hangs on. Von Hemel regional trainer. Speed figures well below graded stakes level. Pace factor only — unlikely to hold in a contested pace scenario.
4	D. O'Neill
14th in Kentucky Derby off a troubled trip (bumped at start, wide). 2nd in San Felipe (G2), 7th in Santa Anita Derby. O'Neill trainer. Prefers to run on or near the lead. Pace factor. Short turnaround. Derby form disappointing.
5	D. Gargan
Champagne Stakes runner-up, Blue Grass (G1) 3rd. Good Magic colt fetched $600K at Keeneland. Trainer Gargan says horse has never been going better physically — fired a sparkling :47.80 half Saturday. Irad Ortiz Jr. up after Silent Tactic scratch. 42-day freshness — just past the bell-curve peak but still earning +1 DSLR. Sneaky value at 20-1.
6	S. Asmussen
Won Gun Runner Stakes, 2nd in Risen Star (G2). Consistent at a solid level. Stalker style. Asmussen positive ROI overall. Co-favorite at 5-1 — market has upgraded him significantly. Jose Ortiz up. Watch for: big step forward off the layoff. Speed figure in last (73) is concerning — needs to bounce back to his 92.
7	T. Fincher
Finalist-level stakes winner from New Mexico. Fincher punches above weight at graded level. Luis Saez up — elite jockey upgrade. Fast Sunland dirt background somewhat similar to Laurel. Best case: giant upset as the most ignored legitimate contender in the field.
8	S. Joseph Jr.
Won Rushaway Stakes (G3) closing from last over Turfway all-weather. Saffie Joseph Jr. trainer. Breezed well at Gulfstream pre-entry. All-weather background on a dirt track is a concern. Speed figures well below the top tier. Pure longshot exotic add.
9	C. Brown
⭐ CHAD BROWN PREAKNESS BLUEPRINT. Brown's two previous Preakness winners both arrived fresh off a prep skip. 2-for-2 including Gotham (G3) win before a disappointing 7th in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat up — top jockey. Morning-line FAVORITE at 9-2. Brown horses that skip Derby and target Preakness have exceptional ROI. Best case: textbook Chad Brown freshness angle at the right price.
10	C. Summers
⚠ SPEED FIGURE DECLINER — 30-point drop. Champagne Stakes (G1) winner (95 Beyer), then ran 5th twice in Derby preps including the Wood. Front-runner who faded when pressed. Paco Lopez up. Dangerous only if the pace collapses in front of him — otherwise a pace factor who fades.
11	D. Stewart
Stonestreet Lexington Stakes 3rd. Speedy type improving with distance. Stewart trainer neutral. Johnny V up — elite jockey. Front-runner in a race with multiple front runners. Pace factor. Use deep in exotics for chaos coverage.
12	R. Mott
6th in Kentucky Derby. Won Virginia Derby (G3) at Colonial Downs in March (Beyer 88). Street Sense (G3) winner. Versatile — comfortable pressing pace, mid-pack, or closing. Jaime Torres up. Riley Mott elite trainer. Co-favorite at 5-1 — market respects his versatility and Mott's ability to maximize talent. Short 14-day turnaround is the concern.
13	J. Ennis
Late scratch from Kentucky Derby (gate incident — reared). Trainer John Ennis says horse is fine. Career built primarily on synthetic surface at Turfway Park — Laurel is dirt, which is a question mark. Blue Grass 5th (uncharacteristically forced to lead, faded). Trainer says he needs a target — runs best stalking with something to chase. Ennis is a smaller stable with limited Triple Crown experience. Low speed figures. Exotic-only play for chaos coverage.
14	J. Englehart
Back-to-back wins at Aqueduct. This is his STAKES DEBUT and first two-turn race. Improving trajectory (82→89 Beyer). Only tactical horse in the field — in a meltdown pace scenario gets +2 Laurel modifier with no competition for that position. Ricardo Santana Jr. up. The model loves his pace setup. Biggest question: can he handle the class and distance jump simultaneously?

Model Weights set all to 1 Total: 110

Speed Figure (Last)

Last race speed figure (Beyer or equivalent)

Speed Trend

Trajectory: last vs. 2-back (improving or declining?)

DSLR / Freshness

Days since last race — bell curve peak at 28–35 days

Pace Setup

Pace role advantage given current race scenario

Track Fam

Laurel Park track familiarity (key this year)

Trainer ROI

Historical trainer ROI and pattern matching

Class Adj

Discount for figures earned below graded stakes level

Model Output — Fair Odds & Value vs. Market 💡 Click any row to see score breakdown

Post	Horse	Class	Pace	Last Spd	Trend	DSLR	Score	Win %	Fair Odds	ML / Act.
5	Talkin D. Gargan	Stalker	87	▲+2	42d	10.6	12.5%	7.0-1	20.0-1 / —	+163%
Speed +2.70 87 vs avg 81.1 = +5.9 Trend +0.94 +2 vs avg -2.1 = +4.1 DSLR +1.54 42d → bonus +1 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Raw score: 10.57 Win prob: 12.5% Fair odds: 7.0-1 Edge vs ML: +162.6%
14	Pretty Boy Miah J. Englehart	Tactical	92	▲+3	21d	10.4	12.4%	7.1-1	15.0-1 / —	+98%
Speed +5.01 92 vs avg 81.1 = +10.9 Trend +1.17 +3 vs avg -2.1 = +5.1 DSLR +1.54 21d → bonus +1 Pace +4.62 tactical → mod +3 Track Fam +1.54 adj +2 Class -3.46 OC/SOC → adj -3 Raw score: 10.41 Win prob: 12.4% Fair odds: 7.1-1 Edge vs ML: +97.8%
1	Taj Mahal B. Russell	Front	92	▲+6	28d	10.3	12.3%	7.1-1	5.0-1 / —	-26%
Speed +5.01 92 vs avg 81.1 = +10.9 Trend +1.87 +6 vs avg -2.1 = +8.1 DSLR +3.08 28d → bonus +2 Pace -4.62 front → mod -3 Track Fam +3.85 adj +5 Trainer +1.15 adj +3 Raw score: 10.34 Win prob: 12.3% Fair odds: 7.1-1 Edge vs ML: -26.2%
7	The Hell We Did T. Fincher	Stalker	81	▼-11	35d	10.3	12.3%	7.1-1	15.0-1 / —	+96%
Speed -0.07 81 vs avg 81.1 = -0.1 DSLR +3.08 35d → bonus +2 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Track Fam +2.31 adj +3 Trainer +0.38 adj +1 Raw score: 10.32 Win prob: 12.3% Fair odds: 7.1-1 Edge vs ML: +96.4%
2	Ocelli W. Beckman	Closer	94	▲+13	14d	8.6	10.8%	8.3-1	6.0-1 / —	-25%
Speed +5.93 94 vs avg 81.1 = +12.9 Trend +3.48 +13 vs avg -2.1 = +15.1 DSLR -3.08 14d → bonus -2 Pace +1.54 closer → mod +1 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Raw score: 8.65 Win prob: 10.8% Fair odds: 8.3-1 Edge vs ML: -24.6%
12	Incredibolt R. Mott	Stalker	89	▲+1	14d	6.3	8.9%	10.3-1	5.0-1 / —	-47%
Speed +3.63 89 vs avg 81.1 = +7.9 DSLR -3.08 14d → bonus -2 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Trainer +0.38 adj +1 Raw score: 6.32 Win prob: 8.9% Fair odds: 10.3-1 Edge vs ML: -46.8%
9	Iron Honor C. Brown	Stalker	76	▼-14	42d	2.6	6.2%	15.1-1	4.5-1 / —	-66%
Speed -2.37 76 vs avg 81.1 = -5.1 Trend -2.75 -14 vs avg -2.1 = -11.9 DSLR +1.54 42d → bonus +1 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Trainer +0.77 adj +2 Raw score: 2.57 Win prob: 6.2% Fair odds: 15.1-1 Edge vs ML: -65.8%
13	Great White J. Ennis	Stalker	72	▼-12	42d	0.8	5.1%	18.5-1	15.0-1 / —	-18%
Speed -4.22 72 vs avg 81.1 = -9.1 DSLR +1.54 42d → bonus +1 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Class -1.15 Allow → adj -1 Raw score: 0.78 Win prob: 5.1% Fair odds: 18.5-1 Edge vs ML: -17.9%
3	Crupper D. Von Hemel	Front	80	▲+17	28d	0.4	4.9%	19.3-1	30.0-1 / —	+53%
Speed -0.53 80 vs avg 81.1 = -1.1 Trend +4.40 +17 vs avg -2.1 = +19.1 DSLR +3.08 28d → bonus +2 Pace -4.62 front → mod -3 Track Fam +1.54 adj +2 Class -3.46 OC/SOC → adj -3 Raw score: 0.41 Win prob: 4.9% Fair odds: 19.3-1 Edge vs ML: +52.6%
11	Corona de Oro D. Stewart	Front	80	▼-7	35d	-1.3	4.0%	23.9-1	30.0-1 / —	+24%
Speed -0.53 80 vs avg 81.1 = -1.1 DSLR +3.08 35d → bonus +2 Pace -4.62 front → mod -3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Raw score: -1.30 Win prob: 4.0% Fair odds: 23.9-1 Edge vs ML: +24.3%
6	Chip Honcho S. Asmussen	Stalker	73	▼-19	56d	-1.5	3.9%	24.6-1	5.0-1 / —	-77%
Speed -3.76 73 vs avg 81.1 = -8.1 Trend -3.90 -19 vs avg -2.1 = -16.9 Pace +4.62 stalker → mod +3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Trainer +0.77 adj +2 Raw score: -1.51 Win prob: 3.9% Fair odds: 24.6-1 Edge vs ML: -76.6%
10	Napoleon Solo C. Summers	Front	78	▼-3	42d	-3.2	3.1%	31.1-1	8.0-1 / —	-72%
Speed -1.45 78 vs avg 81.1 = -3.1 Trend -0.21 -3 vs avg -2.1 = -0.9 DSLR +1.54 42d → bonus +1 Pace -4.62 front → mod -3 Track Fam +1.54 adj +2 Raw score: -3.20 Win prob: 3.1% Fair odds: 31.1-1 Edge vs ML: -72.0%
8	Bull by the Horns S. Joseph Jr.	Closer	70	▲+1	56d	-3.7	2.9%	33.3-1	30.0-1 / —	-10%
Speed -5.14 70 vs avg 81.1 = -11.1 Trend +0.71 +1 vs avg -2.1 = +3.1 Pace +1.54 closer → mod +1 Trainer +0.38 adj +1 Class -1.15 Allow → adj -1 Raw score: -3.66 Win prob: 2.9% Fair odds: 33.3-1 Edge vs ML: -9.7%
4	Robusta D. O'Neill	Front	72	▼-4	14d	-10.8	0.7%	138.9-1	30.0-1 / —	-78%
Speed -4.22 72 vs avg 81.1 = -9.1 Trend -0.44 -4 vs avg -2.1 = -1.9 DSLR -3.08 14d → bonus -2 Pace -4.62 front → mod -3 Track Fam +0.77 adj +1 Trainer +0.77 adj +2 Raw score: -10.82 Win prob: 0.7% Fair odds: 138.9-1 Edge vs ML: -77.8%

Strike Plan Generator

Budget:

Custom $

Spiciness:

🏇 2026 Preakness Stakes — Betting Model Laurel Park · First Time